Best & Worst of Times
For the BC Interior, the early-season snowpack situation has been a “best of time”- “worst of time” set of scenarios. The snowpack quality and quantity have been a bit of a dog’s breakfast. We have had the usual elevation-specific dividing line for both risk and riding quality. Earlier, there was a clear dividing line between precipitation types: rain at lower elevations and significant snowfall at higher elevations, resulting in good riding conditions in the alpine, but access was challenging.
There has also been an anomalous pattern in areas near Revelstoke and across the eastern ranges, with consistently heavy snowfall. Lake Louise is seeing a record-breaking start to the season, with the deepest early-season snowpack in 75 years. As of January 6, the Upper Mountain Base had recorded an impressive 533 cm of snowfall. Over Rogers Pass, ski touring has been defined by punishing trail-breaking, with seasonal totals sitting around 335 cm as of January 2nd. A recent storm delivered up to 40 cm over the January 3rd–4th weekend, with another 10–20 cm expected in the following cycle.
Meanwhile, many areas west and south of Revelstoke have been receiving significant precipitation, but much of it has been rain. Our thoughts and support are with anyone affected by the heavy rainfall and atmospheric river events experienced throughout November, December and into January. The warm temperatures and heavy rain have raised concerns about a weakening snowpack for both recreational riders and professional guides. At times, Avalanche Canada has indicated that the avalanche hazard is significant and has posted the “Danger Rating” as high. Storm systems persisted from mid-December through the Christmas period, driving a rapid increase in mountain snowpack across much of the province. Drier and colder conditions during the final week of December reduced snow accumulation.
Most forecast models are pointing toward the development of a high-pressure ridge over western North America by mid-January, which isn’t great news for snow lovers. That said, more recent trends suggest the ridge may set up farther inland, leaving the door open for warm, moisture-laden storms to track into the BC Interior from the southwest. It’s still not an ideal pattern, as freezing levels and snow lines are expected to rise—especially along the Coast. That could mean rain for areas such as Whistler, the North Shore, and Vancouver Island later in the period as temperatures rise. The Interior will also see some warming, but it should be less pronounced than along the Coast, with precipitation amounts remaining more uncertain.
Northern zones, such as Revelstoke and Kicking Horse, are most likely to receive snow with this setup. While the base at Revelstoke might experience some rain at times, most of the skiable terrain should remain well above the rain–snow line. Further south, moisture appears more limited, reducing the potential for snowfall. As freezing levels rise, rain remains possible but should be pretty limited.
Overall, conditions should improve the farther inland you go and the higher you ascend, even as temperatures rise into early next week. Later in the month, the high-pressure ridge is forecast to move west, just off the coast. That positioning will likely block most storm systems, though it may also allow colder air to flow in from the north. Long-range guidance indicates limited moisture reaching BC, mainly affecting the Interior, with occasional light snowfall possible. At this stage, the systems appear moisture-starved, and a colder, drier pattern appears more likely.
When planning a backcountry winter trip, it’s worth taking advantage of the range of online tools now available to you and your group. Avalanche Canada’s Trip Planner is a solid resource when you’re deciding where to head for a day tour or a multi-day objective. One tool that’s newer to me—but has definitely caught my attention—is snowpack.avalanche.ca. While we wait for the snowpack to continue building, the depth filter has been an easy way to fixate on numbers. Many mapping apps now offer similar features, and it’s a good reminder of just how useful these digital tools have become for solid pre-trip planning.
As always, staying safe starts with staying informed, keeping communication open, and being willing to adapt as conditions change. Winter brings its challenges, but that’s part of what makes time in the mountains so rewarding. With a bit of planning and some honest decision-making, there’s still lots to enjoy while keeping risk in check. Make good calls, respect the backcountry, and aim for a season full of solid days out. Please recreate responsibly—and encourage others to do the same.
Brad Harrison, Colwest Alpine Adventures
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association
